BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) – September 10th (or thereabouts) is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Give or take a few days and it’s not surprising to find a map painted many colors for “areas to watch” in the Atlantic Ocean on Labor Day.
Most notable on the map is Dorian, which remained a Category 5 hurricane for a little over 24 hours before slightly weakening to a
strong, dangerous Category 4 storm mid-Monday.
The forward movement speed of Dorian has slowed to a crawl, still moving west at a pitiful 1mph (down from 5-6mph earlier this holiday weekend). The National Hurricane Center has still not ruled out a Florida landfall, but the storm is still expected to make a northward turn as early as later today. Regardless, this is a storm that needs to be watched very closely from Central Florida all the way up to the Carolinas.
Closer to Home
Updated 1pm Monday
The National Hurricane Center, as of the midday update, now gives an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico a HIGH, 70% chance for development over the next 2 to 3 days. This is not expected to impact Texas, other than higher tides and possible rip currents near and along the coast.
A big high (bringing a LOT of upper level dry air) will likely continue to push this low west and south of the Brazos Valley, though it may be able to fling enough moisture our way Tuesday to pop up a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. What would’ve been our best chance at getting some needed rain this week, this low, whether organizing into a named storm or not, will likely bring most of its rain into Northern Mexico by the middle of the week.
An area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands (just west of Africa) continues to organize and will likely become a tropical depression over the next day or so. It’s far too early to tell if there will be any US or Antilles impacts from this storm, but we’ll need to watch how far west it travels over the next week or two. Behind it, another area of disturbed weather that could potentially take a farther south track has a low to moderate chance of organization over the next 5 days.
Last, but not least, another cluster of swirling storms southeast of Bermuda will begin to come within a couple hundred miles of the island, and potentially become a tropical depression within the next five days.
Long story short, with a building ridge of high pressure over the state of Texas, and all other areas of tropical interest thousands of miles away, the Brazos Valley (and most of Texas) is free of any tropical worries for at least the next week.